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Friday 16 August 2024 22:19, UK
Our football betting expert Jones Knows is back to provide his insight and best angles on every game as the Premier League returns.
A quick reminder: Manchester United aren't very good.
Along with last season being their lowest-ever Premier League finish, they also finished up with a negative goal difference for the first time. They conceded 58 league goals, their worst season defensively for 45 years and faced the second most shots of any team (667) - only relegated Sheffield Utd (678) faced more.
A change of manager will bring new hope though. Wait - checks notes - Erik ten Hag is still Manchester United manager? What is this sorcery?
Anyway, the 4/7 with Sky Bet on a United home win is like driving on an icy night. Easily swerved.
You may be forgiven for being unaware that Adama Traore plays for Fulham - he played just 364 minutes last season.
But the foul-winning machine has looked fit and firing in pre-season, playing 89 minutes of Fulham's win over Hoffenheim and could be ripe for some Marco Silva love to get his career back on track.
This is a player that in the four seasons between 2019-2023 managed to get a player carded every 132 minutes of football from a 7,797-minute sample size with the backdrop of a 2.8 fouls won ratio per 90 minutes. Ridiculous numbers.
With United's problems at left-back, Traore could be lining up against Lisandro Martinez, who isn't going to hold back if tasked with stopping him. This makes his 4/1 quotes with Sky Bet about receiving a card very tempting indeed.
Martinez has averaged a card every 0.29 games in the Premier League since signing for United so those odds undervalue the true probability of another, especially if Traore starts up against him.
Two managers with very different trajectories are set to taste Premier League management for the first time.
Kieran McKenna isn't going to change for anyone. He'll look to be expansive with the ball to get his two key wide men in Leif Davis and Wes Burns into dangerous areas. It should play straight into Liverpool's hands here though, who will be able to create big moments - and when you have someone of the ilk of Diogo Jota in your team, those big moments turn into goals.
Jota could be set for a huge season if staying fit for Arne Slot. Somehow, he's only scored 17 Premier League goals in the last two seasons but having played just 2,281 minutes it means his goals-per-game ratio is the sixth-best of any player to have scored 10 or more goals in that period.
If he can score at that rate of a goal every 134 minutes, he'll be mixing it with the top goalscorers in the Premier League.
Ipswich conceded 57 goals last season despite promotion - only the seventh-best record in the Sky Bet Championship.
Portman Road could be a goal-heavy place this season and Jota can get his season up and running. The 11/2 with Sky Bet for him to score twice is a runner.
Wolves ended the campaign with just one win in their last 10 games and have lost Pedro Neto to Chelsea over the summer. With Matheus Cunha also unlikely to be at full fitness, trying to make a case for Wolves to even score in this match is a difficult argument against a team that should be title favourites to my calculations (13/8 with Sky Bet).
This Arsenal team is ready to compete on all fronts now. They are a proper Premier League powerhouse that looks, along with Man City, considerably clear of the chasing pack. Mikel Arteta has built one of the best defensive units in Premier League history - it's a team that conceded just nine Premier League goals in their last 18 matches with an incredible 0.65 expected goals against average per 90.
This could be the perfect fixture to start with. An Arsenal win to nil at 10/11 with Sky Bet looks the way to get them on your side.
I want Brighton to be good again this season. They are such a shrewd operation that have revolutionised recruitment models and how to punch above your weight in the Premier League. However, there are too many unknowns in the equation regarding trusting them too heavily on the opening weekend in what is a winnable fixture.
Under new manager Fabian Hurzeler, Brighton looked sharp in pre-season, winning every game comfortably and are capable of arresting their decline of last season in forward areas. The task now is to turn that friendly form into league points. They're not quite a betting proposition yet but I'm getting the vibes they will be very soon.
With no Europe to deal with this season, Newcastle could just challenge the top four once again.
Bruno Guimaraes, Joelinton, Alexander Isak and Anthony Gordon are genuine world-class talents that could make a mark for any team in the Premier League. If Eddie Howe can find the balance that evaded him last season when trying to build a solid defence then I'd want to be investing in them when the price is right.
However, until I've seen evidence that the defence has been sorted - relegated Luton, Burnley and Sheffield United managed to score six times against the Toon in 2024 - opposition players have to be of interest in the goalscorer market.
Saints will be encouraged to play with freedom when attacking and Will Smallbone is the player overpriced at 10/1 with Sky Bet to get on the scoresheet from midfield. He scored in three of his last seven starts in the Sky Bet Championship and was unlucky not to score in last weekend's friendly with Getafe.
How Bournemouth cope without Dominic Solanke will be a key factor in their start to their season - and the data doesn't look good in that regard. Since the start of the 2022/23 season, the Cherries have played seven Premier League games without Solanke and are winless, losing six and scoring just two goals.
Andoni Iraola is a very intelligent and underrated boss so may have a plan to fix it but I'd be wary of supporting them until they find a suitable replacement. Whenever I'm looking to back Nottingham Forest, the talented Morgan Gibbs-White is my first port of call and he looks an interesting proposition to score or assist at 6/5 with Sky Bet.
This bet would have landed in four of Forest's last five home matches last season.
With fatigue and injury tolls likely to be a huge factor this season, finding a way to predict which clubs are in danger of potentially underperforming due to workload issues have been on my radar.
And it's Villa that really appealed to me to be a team to oppose this season at the prices in the ante post markets where I'd be keen for the likes of Tottenham and Brighton to finish above them.
Despite their incredible season where Champions League football was achieved, they still picked up 39 injuries last season - the fourth highest of any team.
Champions League football will take a physical and mental toll on the Premier League campaign. Villa ended last season very badly too. Over the last 17 Premier League games, they've averaged a per-90 expected goals against figure of 1.95 which was is the fourth worst in the Premier League. And the last 10 games in the form table shows they were 12th.
I wouldn't be surprised to see West Ham thrive under Julen Lopetegui, whose emphasis on possession football and playing a higher defensive line that made Sevilla an exciting prospect to watch should go down well at the London Stadium after the dirge that has been served up at times under David Moyes.
They can avoid defeat at 4/9 with Sky Bet.
Crystal Palace won seven of their 13 games under Oliver Glasner last season, taking 24 points and winning six of their last seven. I was excited for what could be achieved this season but the transfer window is tempering my enthusiasm with Michael Olise gone and Marc Guehi and Joachim Andersen potentially going too.
Brentford notoriously are strong at home against teams from the bottom half, losing just two of their 20 fixtures across the last two seasons. I'm not exactly bouncing about their prospects this season with a potentially stagnate squad at Thomas Frank's disposal, but this could be a great time to play Palace with so much transfer speculation echoing in the background. The 11/8 with Sky Bet for the home win looked the way to play.
Manchester City at 4/5 with Sky Bet for the win is easily passed up based on the likely understrength nature of the City starting XI and a strangely awful recent record against top-six teams away from home.
City are almost certainly going to be without Rodri, who failed to feature in any of their pre-season and fellow Euro 2024 finalists Kyle Walker, John Stones and Phil Foden are also short of match practice. City lost all three games without Rodri on the road last season at Wolves, Arsenal and Aston Villa and averaged a per game average of just 0.66 expected goals across those three fixtures.
Also, Pep Guardiola's side have only won two of the last 10 matches away at a top-six finisher across the last two seasons with six of those 10 games falling under the 2.5 goals line.
Chelsea aren't exactly a team to trust though with Enzo Maresca likely to take a while to find his best XI from the 41 players he can pick from.
When it does click though, Chelsea have the talent to compete with the top clubs.
It's tricky to formulate a betting plan for this one but heading to the Bet Builder and backing Chelsea with a +2 goal handicap along with under 3.5 match goals brings out a 10/11 shot with Sky Bet which has a fine chance of landing.
I just love the Dominic Solanke signing. He could be the final piece of the jigsaw for Ange Postecoglou as he's the perfect modern-day centre-forward that is a great penalty box finisher and links the play expertly.
I think Postecoglou and his methods can take him to the next level - and boy is he going to get chances playing as the focal point in this Tottenham attack.
Solanke scored 19 goals last season at Bournemouth with only two of them coming from the penalty spot - I'm fully expecting him to surpass those numbers with the level of service improving wide from areas. It's those finishes from cutbacks from wide areas he does excel with and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him get off the mark against who I have down as the most likely to prop up the division this season.
The 4/1 with Sky Bet for Solanke to score first is begging to be backed.
